美国股市奇特的九月效应
Source: &&&
turn the calendar to September, investors have good reason to be
The docket
is full of news that could disrupt the Standard & Poor's 500's
roughly 7% climb since June. On Friday, the Labor Department
releases the latest jobs figures. On Sept. 12, a German court rules
on the constitutionality of a critical rescue fund for the euro
zone. And the Federal Reserve is expected soon to make clear
whether there will be a third round of 'quantitative
5007%831(Labor Department)912(Federal Reserve)
special interest to historians is the calendar itself. Put simply,
Sept. 1 marks the start of a historically miserable month for
That isn't
reason enough for investors to make any drastic moves with their
portfolios. But they could profit by avoiding stocks that have
suffered pullbacks, say some analysts.
1926, in any given month, stocks of large companies have risen 0.9%
on average, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But in
September, they have fallen by 0.8%, the only month with a negative
average return.
(Bank of America
Merrill Lynch)19260.9%0.8%
whatever reason, there's a predictable pattern where September has
bad performance,' says Steven DeSanctis a strategist with Bank of
America Merrill Lynch's equity research team.
?德森提斯(Steven DeSanctis)
has baffled researchers for decades. Striking September events,
such as the 2008 collapse of Lehman Bros. and the 2001 terrorist
attacks, are partly responsible for the bad average, but they can't
explain the problems entirely.
2008(Lehman Bros)2001
example, stocks have risen in only 50% of Septembers since 1926,
the worst of any month and far below the 61.8% average success
192650%61.8%
If someone
started investing in 1802 and kept his money in stocks only during
September, he would have lost more than half of his money by 2006,
according to researchers at the
University of Kansas. Do the same during any other month, and he
would have gained at least 79% during the period.
(University of
Kansas)1802200679%
Explanations for the September swoon are hard to come by,
and harder to swallow.
University of Kansas study suggests a sharp drop-off in the amount
of daylight in New York in September might trigger seasonal
affective disorder and make some traders more risk-averse. On
average, New Yorkers see 3,147 fewer minutes of daylight in
September than they do in August, the biggest drop of any month,
according to the study.
the researchers aren't confident in that explanation. 'From the
best of my ability, I think there's something up with September. No
matter how you slice it up, it's bad,' says the University of
Kansas' Mark Haug, one of the authors of the report. 'It's
frustrating to not have an explanation.'
?豪格(Mark Haug)
sure, September's poor performance could be due to mere chance. 'I
always look at this stuff and wonder, 'Is it randomness?'' says Sam
Stovall, chief equity strategist with S&P Capital
(S&P Capital IQ)?斯托瓦尔(Sam Stovall)
Stovall's theory: poor earnings guidance for the third quarter and
the rest of the calendar year causes weary investors to sell
/195680.htmlAnother possibility posed by researchers:
tax-loss harvesting. A 1986 law forced most mutual funds to move
the end of their tax years to October. So, many portfolio managers
might be selling stocks with recent losses in September and October
to take advantage of tax breaks, says Scott Gibson, a finance
professor at the College of William and Mary who has studied the
phenomenon.
(tax-loss harvesting)198610(College of William and Mary)?吉布森(Scott Gibson)
when the rules took full effect, stocks with recent losses that
were widely held by mutual funds lagged their benchmarks by almost
7 percentage points in October. Those same stocks beat their
benchmarks by nearly 7 points in November, as the effect wore off,
Prof. Gibson says.
then, the effect has become less pronounced, presumably as more
mutual funds caught on.
Gibson says it is strong enough that investors looking to pick up
shares on the cheap would be well-served to wait. Companies that
have more than 5% of their shares held by funds and have seen
recent losses are candidates for continued drops in September and
October, he says.
That would
disqualify computer-seller Dell, which has dropped 10.8% in the
last three months and is about 32% owned by mutual
(Dell)10.8%32%
companies with poor recent performance and high fund ownership
include Delta, Ford, Hewlett-Packard,Netflix, and Research In
(Delta)(Ford)(Hewlett-Packard)NetflixResearch In Motion
But with rational
explanations hard to come by, investors should stop short of making
big moves out of equities, Mr. Stovall says.
better off treating this information the way you would the pilot
coming over the loudspeakers and saying 'Please fasten your safety
belt,'' Mr. Stovall says. 'He's not saying 'Don the parachutes and
assemble by the door.''
14:34:13 &
Bernstein365002%950089%
200710140009
9TrimTabs2786120085830%2004
TrimTabsCharles BidermanElliott WaveRobert Prechter5
9GMOJeremy Grantham1000
9190091.1%
1939MarketWatch(Mark Hulbert)
我们显然还是可以总结出一些对投资有所帮助的经验和教训的。
189642%(59%)
这也需要建立在我们持续做空未来三十个九月的基础上。
已投稿到：
以上网友发言只代表其个人观点，不代表新浪网的观点或立场。热门关键字:
栏目导航&&&Menu
最新资讯&&&New
热门文章&&&Hot
&&当前位置: >
深度套牢股票怎么办？（8种解套方法）
在此次股灾中，绝大多数股票被深度套牢，普遍跌幅在50%或60%以上，甚至是70%以上。虽然大盘止跌反弹了，但距离股票解套还很远，投资者依然亏损严重。当下寻求套牢股票的解套办法成为投资者最关心的问题。这里提供8种解套方法，供投资者参考。1、有杠杆的坚决去杠杆，这是保命办法，是立足股市的长久之计。2、有业绩、有成长性、估值合理的股票坚定持有，坚信在牛市下半场中会收复失地，再创新高；3、有市场热点题材的股票可以高抛低吸，做差价，降低成本，减少损失。4、跌幅超过60%或70%的，可以首先等待股票反弹30%－40%，再做下一步的打算。5、利用手中股票做T+O交易，降低成本，增加收益。6、忘记成本，做超短线交易或价差交易。7、仓位较轻的可以选择优质股票低位补仓，摊低成本，加速解套，以致扭亏增盈。8、调仓换股，以强势股收益弥补弱势股亏损。　明日三类七大牛股精选完毕，见下面
(责任编辑：贰壹优易网)
------分隔线----------------------------关于新手怎么寻找美股早毕业_百度文库
两大类热门资源免费畅读
续费一年阅读会员，立省24元！
关于新手怎么寻找美股早毕业
上传于||文档简介
&&巧​妇​难​为​无​米​之​炊​,​无​论​多​高​的​水​平​,​没​有​一​手​好​牌​,​是​赢​不​了​牌​局​的​。​每​天​开​盘​前​花​半​个​小​时​找​票​,​是​一​个​职​业​D​T​应​有​的​习​惯​,​很​多​人​老​票​能​赚​钱​一​直​做​,​不​关​心​外​面​的​世​界​,​在​现​在​这​种​行​情​,​就​会​暴​露​出​弊​端​。​无​论​是​做​老​票​的​人​,​还​是​常​年​奋​战​在​消​息​股​一​线​的​人​,​都​应​该​开​盘​前​找​找​新​票​,​储​备​粮​草​。
阅读已结束，如果下载本文需要使用1下载券
想免费下载本文？
下载文档到电脑，查找使用更方便
还剩3页未读，继续阅读
你可能喜欢投资时钟理论与B--L模型于美国股市的应用——所有资料文档均为本人悉心..
扫扫二维码，随身浏览文档
手机或平板扫扫即可继续访问
投资时钟理论与B--L模型于美国股市的应用
举报该文档为侵权文档。
举报该文档含有违规或不良信息。
反馈该文档无法正常浏览。
举报该文档为重复文档。
推荐理由：
将文档分享至：
分享完整地址
文档地址：
粘贴到BBS或博客
flash地址：
支持嵌入FLASH地址的网站使用
html代码：
&embed src='/DocinViewer-4.swf' width='100%' height='600' type=application/x-shockwave-flash ALLOWFULLSCREEN='true' ALLOWSCRIPTACCESS='always'&&/embed&
450px*300px480px*400px650px*490px
支持嵌入HTML代码的网站使用
您的内容已经提交成功
您所提交的内容需要审核后才能发布，请您等待！
3秒自动关闭窗口WSTOCK.NET：全球证券市场专业服务，包括香港、纳斯达克及纽约证交所股票数据
服&务&概&览
付&费&用&户&登&陆&区
用户名：&&
相&关&市&场
金融数据专业服务
微信查行情API接口：：通过该接口，任意微信公众号中均可实现行情查询功能
实时行情开发：；扩展：
金融实时数据库（RDS）：
WDZ程序及数据：（含沪深1990年至今日线数据）；
资金流量分析：；扩展：
香港股票数据：
海外股票数据：
外汇、期货数据：
沪深市场数据：
超高频数据：
通用数据格式：
常用股软格式：
常用股软格式：
海外股软格式：
& & Copyright &&2001 - 2016&&}