乌克兰危机引发全球市场波动 股市下跌美国国债上涨 _中国经济网――国家经济门户
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2011年秋天，预算，美国国债，美元引发的全球经济，金融，货币体系危机
转载与评论GEAB第54期：2011年秋天，预算，美国国债，美元引发的全球经济，金融，货币体系危机
LEAP2020 GEAB每次总是危言耸听的，2006年年中以来，一直唱衰世界经济，特别是以唱衰欧美经济为主业。包括世界经济在大量货币刺激和财政刺激下复苏的2010年。
中国第三季度，将大量开工廉租房，以消耗&部分冻结商品房市场&导致的水泥，钢铁等等各种房地产相关行业的过剩产能，尽力拖，尽力保持永久的繁荣。
学工程的知道，机器需要维护；学生物的知道，很多动物需要睡觉；学经济的知道，繁荣和萧条的周期更替，是不以人的意志为转移的。历史上经历的计划和短期经济，不过是&一直处于慢性经济危机&而已。老马在1873年以前，就预言资本主义的必然灭亡。结果发生了1873年世界经济萧条，而且震中在美国。
1873年，美国铁路投资泡沫破裂，那个时候美国的铁路长度大约是10万公里，到1895年，美国铁路长度接近30万公里。
1929年，美国汽车为特征的超级繁荣破裂，二战以后到1970年，汽车在美国更加普及。
2000年3月，美国互联网泡沫破裂，互联网继续普及，对全世界的影响继续深化。
中国房地产投资泡沫的破灭，不是什么末日，而是一段痛苦的向下的去库存调整。
大约2010年10月前后，中国开始更大力地反通货膨胀了。目前是保增长与反通货膨胀并举。
大豆，石油，涨到2011年9月的问题不大。
每一次经济危机，金融危机，股市跌的比商品早许多。中国股市，在美元如此弱势的情况下，居然涨得这么少。
我的观点一直是，欧洲的&去福利&改革，需要5到15年的过程，长期的滞涨，才会使得&去福利&的改革深入人心。普通人，都是人他妈生的，也不是什么觉悟很高的人。欧洲，为了和谐，会尽量维持福利，直到难以为继。美国类似，但是福利覆盖的广度和深度，远远不及欧洲。所以，美国经济的活力不错，年，应该就是美国经济非常好的年份。
以下为GEAB观点：
2011年秋天引发的危机，会使得2008年秋天的危机只是个炸弹的引信。
英国麻烦了，没钱了。
美国财政预算危机，或者美国如何主动或者被逼陷入前所未有的财政紧缩，会使得全球经济和金融市场下沉。
美国国债危机，或者美联储进入末日之旅（意思是美联储如果继续大量购买美国国债，进行国债货币化，那么美联储进入末日之旅），美联储不得不面对几近破产的境地。
美元货币危机，或者美元量化宽松二期结束后，会开始大幅度的贬值（美元在几周内贬值30%）。
GEAB N&54 is available! Global systemic crisis: Autumn 2011 & Budget/T-Bonds/Dollar, the three US crises which will cause the Very Serious Breakdown of the global economic, financial and monetary system
- Public announcement GEAB N&54 (April 16, 2011) -
The 15 September 2010, GEAB N&47 issue was headed & Spring 2011: Welcome to the United States of Austerity / Towards the very serious breakdown of the world economic and financial system &. Yet at the end of summer 2010, most experts believed first, that the debate on the US budget deficit would remain a mere subject of theoretical discussion within the Beltway (1) and secondly, that it was unthinkable to imagine the United States engaging in a policy of austerity because it was sufficient for the Fed to continue to print dollars. Yet, as everyone has been able to see for several weeks, Spring 2011 really did bring austerity to the United States (2), a first since the Second World War and the setting up of a global system based on the ability of the US engine to always generate more wealth (real from 1950 to 1970, increasingly virtual thereafter).
At this stage, LEAP/E2020 can confirm that the next stage of the crisis will really be the &Very Serious Breakdown of the world economic, financial and monetary system& and that this historic failure will occur in autumn 2011 (3). The monetary, financial, economic and geopolitical consequences of this &Very Serious Breakdown& will be of historic proportions and will show the crisis of autumn 2008 for what it really was: a simple detonator.
The crisis in Japan (4), the Chinese decisions and the debt crisis in Europe will certainly play a role in this historic breakdown. On the other hand we consider that the issue of government debt of countries on Euroland&s periphery is no longer the dominant European risk factor here, but it is the United Kingdom which will find itself in the position of the &sick man of Europe& (5). The Eurozone has in fact established and keeps improving all the monitoring systems needed to address these problems (6). Management of the Greek, Portuguese and Irish problems will therefore take place in an organized fashion. That private investors must take a haircut (as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 before summer 2010) (7) does not belong to the category of systemic risks, displeasing the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and Wall Street and City experts, trying every three months to rerun the &coup& of the early 2010 Eurozone crisis (8).
In contrast, the United Kingdom has completely missed its attempt at &preventive budgetary amputation surgery& (9). In fact, under pressure from the street and particularly more than 400,000 British who roamed the streets of London on 03/26/2011 (10), David Cameron is forced to lower his target for reducing health care costs (a key point of his reforms) (11). At the same time, the Libyan military adventure has also forced him to rethink his goals for Defense Ministry budget cuts. We already mentioned in the last GEAB issue that the British government&s financing needs continue to rise, reflecting the ineffectiveness of the measures announced whose implementation is proving very disappointing in reality (12). The only result of the Cameron / Clegg (13) duo policy is currently the relapse of the British economy into recession (14) and the obvious risk of the ruling coalition imploding after the next referendum on electoral reform.
In this issue, our team describes the three key factors that mark out this Very Serious Breakdown of autumn 2011 and its consequences. Meanwhile, our researchers have begun to anticipate the progression of the Franco-Anglo-American military operation in Libya which we believe is a powerful accelerator of global geopolitical dislocation and that it usefully illuminates some of the current tectonic changes in the relationships between major world powers. In addition to our GEAB $ index, we expand on our recommendations for dealing with the dangerous quarters to come.
Basically, the process that is unfolding before our eyes, of which the US entry into an era of austerity (15) is a simple budgetary expression, is a continuation of the balancing of the 30 trillion of ghost assets which had invaded the global economic and financial system in late 2007 (16). While about half of them had disappeared in 2009, they have been partially resurrected since then due to the volition of the major global central banks, and the US Federal Reserve in particular and its &QE 1 and 2&. Our team considers, therefore, that 20 trillion of these ghost assets will go up in smoke beginning autumn 2011, and very brutally, under the combined impact of the three US mega-crises in accelerated gestation:
. the budgetary crisis, or how the United States plunges willingly or by force into this unprecedented austerity and takes whole swathes of the global economy and finance with it
美国预算危机，或者美国如何主动或者被逼陷入前所未有的财政紧缩，会使得全球经济和金融市场下沉。
. the crisis in US Treasury bonds, or how the US Federal Reserve reaches the &end of the road& which began in 1913 and must face up to its bankruptcy whatever accounting sleight of hand is chosen
美国国债危机，或者美联储进入末日之旅（意思是美联储如果继续大量购买美国国债，进行国债货币化，那么美联储进入末日之旅），美联储不得不面对几近破产的境地。
. the US Dollar crisis, or how the jolts in the US currency that will characterize the ending of QE2 in the second quarter of 2011 will be the beginnings of a massive devaluation (around 30% in a few weeks).
美元危机，或者美元量化宽松二期结束后，会开始大幅度的贬值（美元在几周内贬值30%）。
Central banks, the global banking system, pension funds, multinationals, commodities, the US population, Dollar zone economies and/or dependent on trade with the United States (17) ... everyone structurally dependent on the US economy (of which the government, the Fed and the federal budget have become central components), assets denominated in dollars or commercial dollar transactions, will suffer the head on shock of 20 trillion in ghost assets purely and simply disappearing from their balance sheets, from their investments, and causing a major decline in their real incomes.
Remittance of funds by US immigrant workers to their countries of origin (first number in local currency at the dollar exchange rate end 2008/second number: the same, at the exchange rate end 2010) - Source: Wall Street Journal, 04/2011
Around the historic shock of autumn 2011 which will mark the definitive confirmation of significant trends anticipated by our team in previous GEAB issues, the main asset classes will experience major upheavals requiring the increased vigilance of all players concerned for their investments. In fact, this triple US crisis will mark the true exit from the &world after 1945& which saw the US play the role of Atlas and will, therefore, be marked by many shocks and aftershocks in the quarters which follow.
For example, the dollar may experience short-term effects of strengthening value against the major world currencies (especially if US interest rates rise very quickly following the ending of QE2), even if, six months after that, its 30% loss of value (relative to its current value) is inevitable. We can, therefore, only repeat the advice that has appeared at the head of our recommendations since the beginning of our work on the crisis: in the context of a global crisis of historic proportions like the one we are experiencing, the only rational objective for investors is not to make more money, but to try to lose as little as possible.
This will be particularly true for the coming quarters where the speculative environment will become highly unpredictable in the short term. This short term unpredictability will be particularly due to the fact that the three US crises that trigger Very Serious Breakdown in the world in autumn are not concurrent. They are very closely correlated but not linearly. And one of them, the budget crisis, is directly dependent on human factors with a big influence on the whilst the other two (whatever those who see the Fed officials as gods or devils think (18)) are now, for the large part, included in the significant trends where US leaders& actions have become marginal (19).
The budget crisis, or how the United States plunges willingly or by force into this unprecedented austerity and takes whole swathes of the global economy and finance with it
The numbers can make the head spin: &6 trillion in budget cuts over ten years& (20), said the Republican Paul Ryan, &4 trillion in twelve years& retorted the 2012 candidate Barack Obama (21), &all this is far from sufficient&, bids one of the Tea Party referents, Ron Paul (22). And anyway, sanctions the IMF, &the United States is not credible when it speaks of cutting its deficits& (23). This unusually harsh remark from the IMF, traditionally very cautious in its criticism of the United States, is in any case particularly justified in terms of the psychodrama which, for a fistful of tens of billions of dollars, nearly shut down the federal state absent any agreement between the two major parties, a scenario that will, moreover, soon take place again over the federal debt ceiling.
The IMF is only expressing an opinion widely shared by creditors of the United States: if, for a few tens of billions USD in deficit reduction, the US political system reached that degree of paralysis, what will happen when, in the coming months, cuts of several hundred billion dollars a year will be required? Civil war? This is the new California governor
(24) opinion in any case, who believes that the United States is facing a regime crisis identical to that which led to the Civil War (25).
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不盲从,不崇拜,提供客观真实的财经信息　　据香港《南华早报》报道称，国际货币基金组织两位研究员都对中国信贷不断膨胀感到忧虑。“中国的时间已不多，应尽快实施必要的经济改革。”这是国际货币基金组织（IMF）研究员马尔哈?纳巴（Malhar Nabar ）和帕帕?恩迪亚耶（Papa N'Diaye）的意见。两人本月发布最新工作报告，当中警告称，中国若不大幅调整政策，就有可能爆发金融危机，导致日后经济发展脱轨。用这段话开头寓意深远。
楼主发言：9次 发图：0张
　　中国死之前　　香港绝对死了百年以上　　请英奴们管好自己
　　国外的那套宏观经济学理论，不能完全解释中国的经济。　　西方经济理论，是建立在市场规则和“理性经济人”假设基础上的。但中国的经济体系，还得加上政府调控这一重要的变量。　　比如，金融危机的产生往往是因为“多米诺骨牌”效应，几块牌倒下，就产生海啸似的连锁反应。但在中国，政府一伸手，就把连锁效应阻断了。西方政府敢像中国政府一样命令金融机构“不准乱来”吗？即使有大捞一笔的机会，或者面临损失，政府一旦干预，也得乖乖地按要求办。这就为化解危机，赢得了时机和环境。　　西方的市场交易主体是利益独立的，大难临头各自逃，甚至趁机砍对方一块肉；但中国主要的交易主体：国企、地方政府、金融机构，老板都是一个，左兜掏右兜的事。地方政府还不起到期债务了？国企资金吃紧了？大领导一协调，金融机构乖乖配合，该展期的展期，该放贷的放贷。金融机构也吃紧？喂，央行该你表现一下了！　　这样，所有危机可以慢慢化解，地方政府、国企以后赚着钱逐步还，不用一下搞死嘛。实在还不上了，来个债转股，央行把钱给特殊金融机构，特殊金融机构收购不良资产，政府、国企、银行账面上又漂漂亮亮。　　经济金融危机是个很有意思的现象，生产力摆在那儿，但由于不同利益主体的斗争，经济运行陷入泥潭，最后停下生产来个你死我活的重新分配。而中国的机制，能够将其化解于无形。　　十几年前中国银行业就是从西方眼中“技术性破产”，摇身一般成了优质上市公司，到今天还越活越越风光，把西方银行比得黯然失色。这是西方经济学无法解释的，只能归纳为中国政府的“魔法”。
　　曾就把美国历来的经济发展指数，做成了一张统计图。因为猴子对美国经济动向研究比卫还早的多，在猴子制作的这张图中，不但清楚地能显示出美国的经济发展指数，还复合了美国国债连年推高的经济数据线，从图上不但能清楚的反映出两条线何时交汇，还能清楚地预测数字，正因为有这些，卫才敢断定美国经济“币变”的。因为从猴子的那张图上看把美国经济比为走钢丝一点儿也不为过，美国为了向世界各国借的钱交代还本付息，美国国策一直循着借新债还旧债的日子。终于在一年多前，美国财政积聚达到了天量数字的25万多亿美元欠债，达到了其国家GDP数字的1.25倍，到了交叉红点上……
　　这俩人说不定是收了中国钱的呢.以前随便什么人说中国要崩溃都有人信，现在得级别高的人这样说才有人相信了。
　　25万多亿美元的国债数字，中国政府心里底线再也承受不住，害怕购买的美国国债会打了水漂成为冤大头，中国政府向美国政府要求就中国买的国债作出必要的履约保证，美国对这一要求置之不理被中国政府误以为想赖账，两国矛盾就此爆发。在多次交涉未果的情况下，中国公然在世界各地发表言论说：“美国是个不承担责任的国家，要在市场抛售已买的美国国债。”
　　听到风声，世界各国趁机抢先动手。因为当时的中国经济如日中天，世界各国都希望搭上中国经济的顺风车，看到中国真有抛美国国债惩罚美国的意思，各国慌忙把手中的美国债券抢先抛向市场，而当时的美国因国库空虚无法承兑各国购买的国债数额，一场因美国国债履约的经济危机爆发。总统布尔为了息事宁人和安抚世界，他把罪责推到财长身上把原财长给撤了换上了新财长布蓝达?盖尔。　　布蓝达?盖尔接替财长后，表面上，他遵循美国政府对世界作出的承诺同意用实物保证。暗地里，他认为以美国现有财力是无法完成国债履约的，是无法堵住这个历史窟窿的。
　　布蓝达?盖尔认为这是个死局，不但美元会崩盘，国家也会破产。美国会像俄罗斯一样也会沦落成为一个二流国家。他不愿意看到这种结局。他一心要改变这种状况，于是想到了要用金融“币变”技术来扭转美国国债经济危局。
　　在这一观点上，当时的联邦储备委员会主席费?奥利斯，他的老友持了反对意见。费?奥利斯认为应该让美国美元货币缓慢贬值加速金融流通，用低利率推动制造业回暖，双管齐下刺激经济增长。费?奥利斯的指导思想是：虽然美元缓慢贬值了，但美国的核心竞争力还在，等美国经济稳定了，再考虑逐步升值美元，美国还能保住经济大国的地位。另外，费?奥利斯认为美国这些年已经欠世界很多了，就应该勇于承担历史责任。
　　他们俩的意见对立，几乎都到了水火不相容的地步，就连同校感情和多年的友谊也不顾。为这事，两人彻头彻尾的大吵了一顿，费?奥利斯对着布蓝达?盖尔大喊大叫：“你要‘币变’，全世界的国家会答应吗，不答应，到那到时候，美国真的就毁在你手里了。”　　“不答应，我们美国政府这些人是干吗的？”　　“难不成牛不喝水，你还按住牛喝水不成？”　　“老友，其实‘币变’并没有你说的那么复杂，要做到‘币变’计划，无非就是要打击刺头国家，这次就是中国带的头，只要把中国这个刺头给打压下去了，世界自然就没了再敢出头的国家了。”
　　“中国不是吃素的，它中国这没多年来的经济成就，难到都是天上掉下来的，你怎么不用脑子想想……”　　“想什么想，中国经济一直向好，中国人早就停在它的特殊社会主义经济固定思维中了，哪里还会想到我们美国会突然反起道而行发起‘币变’呢，估计是你把中国看得太高了吧，老友。”　　“不管你这么说，我是绝对不同意的，这样做太危险了，你这样做等于是在反人类，甚至一不小心整个美国也会遭殃你知道吗……”
　　在“币变”这件事上总统布尔是鼎力支持的，他启用布蓝达?盖尔就希望他敢作敢为，就把他曾是金融企业里的CEO、懂得金融全盘操控能力和实际工作能力考虑在内了的。　　启用布蓝达?盖尔当财长前他们有过一次接触，在那次接触时，他们两人就美国经济未来走向做过一次较深刻的分析，布蓝达?盖尔对总统布尔发表自己对未来的经济看法，说：“……传统的金融方式，是无法抵消美国经济多年来债务的，把美元贬值和采取低利率金融政策，那也不可能根治美国长久以来的诟病，若一旦有一国家，特别是如中国这样经济力量深厚的经济国家对美国发起经济战，美国就会成为前苏联第二。与其这样等待别国进攻，还不如主动发起反击，用‘币变’计划把中国经济推倒，推到了中国经济也就推到了世界经济发展的火车头，那，美国经济自然就向好了。”
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