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隧道交易系统说明书中文版
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房价连跌房租为啥还在涨？公积金新政成首因
[摘要]今年以来，广州乃至全国楼市都降声一片，而二手房租赁价格却丝毫不受影响，仍呈上升态势，7月二手楼市租赁交易上涨三到四成。图/东方IC今年以来，广州乃至全国楼市都降声一片，而二手房租赁价格却丝毫不受影响，仍呈上升态势。搜房网二手房数据监控中心昨日最新出炉的数据显示，2014年7月广州全市租金均价为3350元/月·套，环比上涨1.21%，平均每套上涨40元/月。值得一提的，随着租赁价格的上涨，二手房租赁交易也大涨。天河、越秀、海珠等几大中心城区的不少中介在接受羊城晚报记者采访时均表示，7月二手楼市租赁交易上涨三到四成。房价连跌未阻房租涨势中国指数研究院近日发布的《7月百城价格指数报告》显示，7月全国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为10835元/平方米，环比6月下跌0.81%，这是继5月、6月以来的第3个月持续下跌。100个城市中76个城市环比下跌，其中广州环比下跌1.77%，跌幅居十大城市首位。近日记者走访广州多家地产中介也了解到，二手楼市目前大部分业主的降价幅度在3%-10%。有的豪宅楼盘降幅甚至达到15%。但在房价下跌的同时，租金却在上涨。“广州的房租涨得太离谱，三年前我在五羊新城租个一房一厅，1200元就能租到，去年涨到了1800元，现在则涨到了2000元，还不包水电煤气和管理费，而且房子也比较旧。”就职于一公关公司的小刘称。月租2500元几成起步价羊城晚报记者也实地考察发现，天河一些小区的单身公寓交通方便、商业配套完善、屋内家电齐全，月租金基本都在3000元到4000元之间，而越秀区一些一居室也达2300元到2800元左右。据海珠区怡乐路的一些中介介绍，去年该区域还能找到月租2000元的一居室，今年以来，这些户型基本都涨到了2300元到2500元左右。搜房网提供的数据也显示，广州中心六区的月租金基本都处于上涨态势，其中越秀区7月的租金均价最高，达3787元/套·月，其次是天河区，为3688元/套·月；排在后两位的白云区和番禺区租金均价也分别达到3115元/套·月和2520元/套·月。根据显示，广州一居室租赁均价为2495元/套·月，环比上涨2.25%；二居的租赁均价为2899元/套·月，环比上涨1.82%；三居的租赁均价为3500元/套·月，环比上涨1.01%。而房租看涨状况并非刚刚开始，记者6月走访租房市场时发现，业主叫价高100元到200元已是常事，而高校周边一些房子的租金，甚至较去年同期上涨300元到400元。记者走访天河、越秀、海珠、荔湾等多个区域的房产中介了解到，6月时相关区域的平均租金较去年同期上涨10%左右。购房者观望情绪加重推动租赁需求此前，不少业内人士都分析认为，房租上涨的根本原因在于高居不下的房价。那么，今年以来，房价不仅没有像以前大幅向上攀爬，一些房源还出现回落，尤其是新房市场。然而此时，房租仍继续向上。为什么租房者却难在楼市趋冷中找到利好？对此，满堂红市场研究部高级经理周峰分析表示，由于物价上涨，很多业主便把房租作为成本转嫁的方式，而不少租客面对租金上涨，却没有什么议价能力，因为虽然现在广州一些房源出现降价，但价格仍高，无法凑足首付，租房就仍要继续。“也许有不少人问，现在楼价下跌，有不少业主所持房源由售转租，这在一定程度上增加了房源的供应量，为什么房租还是下不来？”长期浸染于二手楼市的陈志刚表示，尽管房源增加，但如果房价下跌，不少原本打算买房的消费者会进行观望，从而继续推动租赁市场的需求，由此带动房租上涨。“二者是一个互补关系。” “短期内，房租不可能下跌。”陈志刚分析认为原因有二：第一，公积金每月限额贷款的新政会使不少租客短时间内难以进入买卖市场；第二，首付压力过大，加上按揭利率过高，月供房款与租金相比，高出一截，这也会推迟部分消费者进入二手房买卖市场。(羊城晚报)
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//浮动广告维加斯隧道交易方法
THE TUNNEL METHOD
(隧道交易方法）
Step 1.First, you need a
charting service. Since most all electronic
trading platforms have charts with technical indicators, this
shouldn't be a problem.
首先你需要找个好的图表服务，由于目前大多数电子交易平台都有技术指标图形，这应该不难。
Create a 1 hour chart on
whatever currency pairs interest you. Barcharts or candlesticks really
make no difference. Overlay
on this 3 things: 1) a 169 period [1 hour] ema [exponential moving
average], 2) a 144 period [1 hour] ema, and finally 3) a 12
[1hour] ema.
在你的平台上建一个你感兴趣货币对的1h的图形，棒型图还是蜡烛图都可以，没有什么大的区别，
叠加上三条均线（ema均线）：1）一条ema(169)的均线；2）ema(144)均线；最后一条ema(12)的均线；
The 144 and 169 ema's create
what I call the "tunnel". The 12 ema is an extremely valuable
filter that you will want to have there all the time.
I will talk more
about this in the filter section.
建立的144，169这两条均线我叫隧道。Ema(12)是一个非常有价值的过滤器，你一直都需要他，我会在过滤这部分专门介绍他。
Step 2.Memorize or write down
and keep next to your trading screen the following fibonacci number
sequence: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377.
For trading purposes, the
numbers of&
interest are 55, 89, 144, 233, and 377.
第2步：记住或写下以下的费纳滋数列到靠近你的屏幕的位置，1，1，2，3，5，8，13，21，34，55，89，144，233，377。就交易的目的来说，最感兴趣的数字是55，89，144，233，377。
Step 3.Wait for the market to
come into the area of the "tunnel". When it breaks ABOVE the upper
tunnel boundary, you go long. When it breaks BELOW the lower tunnel
boundary, you go short.
第3步：等待市场走进隧道的区域，如果向上突破隧道上轨，你就作多。如果跌破下轨边缘，你就做空。（这里的市场理解成K线，更好理解）
Step 4.Stops and reverse are
placed on the other side of the tunnel.&
第4部：止损或反转的位置在隧道的另一边。
Step 5.As the market trades in
your direction, you take partial profits at the successive fib
numbers respectively, with the final portion of your position left
on until one of the following conditions occur: 1) market hits the
last fib number [377 pips]& from the ema's, or 2)
the market eventually comes back to the tunnel and violates the
other side.
第5步：当市场按你交易方向进行时，你按费纳滋数列逐一兑现部分利润离场，留下部分最后一部分头寸直到出现以下情况时再结清：1）K线碰到最后一个费纳滋数字（377点）或2）K线最终回到了隧道碰并且到了另一边。
Example: GBP/USD
is trading at 1.8500. The ema's are as follows: 144- 1.-
1.8512. The market breaks 1.8494, and you sell at 1.8492. Your stop
and reverse is now at 1.8512. Over the following hours, market
starts to go down. 40 minutes after you put position on, cable is
at 1.8440. You can use for computation purposes either tunnel
boundary or the median of the tunnel. Ema's are still the same, so
if you use the median, 55 from 1.8503 is 1.8448. You should have
taken part of the position off at 1.8448. Market does nothing rest
of day. Stop can be moved down to protect position or left alone at
You are now looking for price to be 89 pips away from the ema's.
Since 55 was already passed, it no longer concerns us in this
cycle. A couple of days later, cable is at 1.8300 and the median of
ema's is 1.0 - 1.8420]. You should be out of another
portion of the position at 1.8321. Market bottoms here and in the
next 2 hours, cable screams to 1.8535. Your remaining short
position is covered at upper tunnel boundary of 1.8420, and you are
now long from this point as well. Since you are long, you would now
take partial profits at 1.8475 and 1.8509.
例如：GBP/USD
在1.8500位置交易，EMA状况如下：ema(144)-1.8494,EMA(169)-1.8512.K线跌破1.8494，你就在1.8492位置作空，你设定的止损或反转点现在就是1.8512。在接下来的几小时，市场开始向下走，40分钟你开仓后，到了1.8440。你可以用计算机计算结果隧道边缘或者隧道中央了。ema还是一样的，所以如果你用隧道中央，从1.8503到1.8448是55点，你可以在1.8448位置了解部分头寸。接下来一天里市场无所作为，止损可以移动到保护头寸或任由其在隧道内。现在你寻求由ema下来的89点的价位了。由于55点已经过了，我们不再关心这个循环了。几天以后，到了1.8300的位置，中线ema是1.8410（1.8410－1.8420）。你必须在1.8321位置出来另一部分头寸。这就是市场的底了，2小时后，涨到1.8535。你的剩余头寸在上轨上缘1.8420位置了，现在你最好做多。由于你现在做多，你可以将空头头寸在1.8475或1.8509结回部分利润。This
is a fairly typical example.
If you were to just stick to
this basic model, you account would grow very well over
time. & Las Vegas was built
with far fewer percentages in the casino's favor.
如果你一直按此基本模式操作，你的账户会一直这样增长下去。拉斯维加斯赌场赢的概率可低得多。
In case you haven't figured it
out, this model cuts your losses very short.
By definition, you
can't lose very much on a single trade from your initial entry
position.. On the other side, you take some quick profits at the 55
level which satisfies the scalper in you, and you have positioned
yourself for bigger profits in the long run should the market keep
going in your favor. By definition, you are letting profits
即使你没有进行计算，这个模型将你的损失控制在很小的额度。明确的说，你不会在你的初始入点的单一交易中损失很多。另一方面，你在55点位置快速获得了利润足以满足剥头皮的要求（可以赚回点差），你拥有赚取更多利润的头寸，在接下来的市场按你方向长期运行中。明显地，你让利润奔跑。
The Achilles heal
of this model is when the market chops around the tunnel and gets
you in and out multiple times for small losses. I will cover how to
deal with this in the filters section.
这个模型的致命弱点是当市场在隧道边缘盘整，让你多次进出会带来一些小的损失.我会在过滤部分告诉你如何处理隧道区的盘整。
That's it. This
is the model. Fairly simple in its design, and easy to remember.
Has all the things every local wants in a model, except the quick 2
pip scalps, which you can't do anyway. Cuts losses, and lets profits
run. Yet for its design simplicity, the thought behind is more
complex. Time to talk about that.
这个模型设计上相当简单，容易记忆。这个模型能得到所有想要的，除了快达2点的头皮，你不能做什么外。减少损失，让利润奔跑，背后的思想很复杂，有时间再说明他。
THE FILTERS
Filters are used to increase
overall profitability and/or reduce overall losses.
If a filter does not
do one of these two things, then I do not use it. What good is a
filter if it raises your profitability by 10% but only gets you
into 1/3 as many trades? What good is a filter if it reduces losses
by 10% - 20% , but also reduces profitability on every trade by
half? I think you get the point.
过滤用于提高整体利润和（或）减少整体损失。如果过滤器达不到两者之一，我就不用它。什么是个好的过滤器？它提高你的利润10%，但仅仅过滤掉所有交易的1/3。什么是个好的过滤器？减少损失10-20%，也还在你所以有的交易中减少了50%利润。我想你知道选择哪个了。
Here are the
filters the Vegas team uses. [Yes, I have a team. There are 3 of
us. We trade GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and the S&P e-mini futures
contract. Each has a specialty. Mine is GBP/USD. We are each
responsible for our main pair. One of us is always at the screen
when markets are open. Positions are covered by other partners when
away. We only tunnel trade.]
这是Vegas团队使用的过滤器。（是的，我一个小团队，我们三个人，交易GBP/USD,USD/CHF和S&P
电子迷你合约。每个人都有特长，我的特长是
GBP/USD，我们每个人负责一个货币对，我们中的一个人一直盯在屏幕上当开市后，照看着所有的人的头寸当其他离开的时候，我们只用隧道法交易）。
1.)Put the 12 ema
[1 hour] on your screen with the rest of your indicators. When
everything is at the same price [tunnel, current market price, 12
ema] sit up and take notice. When the market breaks away from the
tunnel, there is a very high probability of a strong market move
coming.& I
don't need Gann, because this gives me time, the square of time,
and price all in equilibrium. When it breaks, it goes.
将EMA(12)及其他指标放到1h图上，当（隧道，现在的市场价，ema(12)处于一个价格时，严密注意。一旦价格脱离隧道，一个可能很大的很强的市场机会来了。我不需要江恩，因为这给我时间，时间正方，所有的价格平衡了，一旦突破，行情开始了。
Need proof? Well,
go back on your favorite currency pair and check it out. In the
first quarter of 2005, this filter alone produced 20 trades, 19
which were profitable in USD/CHF. In fact, as I write this, 1 trade
is still on from about 3 handles ago. Since I am not responsible
for Swiss, I'm not the guy pushing the button, only monitoring it
when I'm at the screen [changing stops when needed, etc.]. But, the
position is still on.
需要证明吗？哦，回头看看你喜欢的货币对检查一下，在2005年的第一季，这个过滤信号出现了20次交易机会，19次在USD/CHF上带来了盈利，实际上，在我写这篇文章时，一个交易从进出3次后还在进行。由于我不是负责瑞郎货币对的，也不是决定交易他的人，我仅是看住头寸的人（我只根据需要调整止损，等），但是，这个头寸还没平。
This filter is so profitable, we
increase the size of our trading position when we see it develop
and then happen.
这个过滤器如此能盈利，我们一旦看到这种情形出现，就增加交易的头寸。
When you go back
and check it out, you will notice many times how it just misses a
move by a few hours. It is an extremely profitable
当你回头察看时，你会注意到很多次，几小时机会就出现了，这是一个具有相当盈利能力的过滤器。
We also define
"same price" as being within 5 pips or so of being equal. Sometimes
it turns out the signal is exact, but I don't think you have to
split hairs on this. Within 5 pips is good enough for
我定义“相同价格”，指的是5点以内或者相同，有时证明信号是确切的，但我认为你不必吹毛求疵，5点对于我们来说足够了。
2.)We do not
initiate new currency trading positions based on tunnel trading
during the Asian time-frame. Anything between 5pm NY and Midnight
NY is ignored for entry of new positions. Positions that are on are
monitored as normal, i.e., everything else is the same. We will
take profits if fib levels are hit. If we miss a move, then we miss
a move. A missed move is just an opportunity cost. Chop-chop in
Asia will eventually cost you more money than it is
在亚洲市期间我们不开新仓，纽约时间下午5点到午夜避免开新仓，已开的仓密切注意，都一样，只要到达费那滋数列位置，就平仓兑现利润，如果错过了一个波动，就错过了仅仅是一个机会成本，亚洲市的盘整最终会比损失花费你更多的钱。
3.)News days that
can have a significant affect on prices are ignored. That's right,
we skip them for entry of new positions. Currently there is only 1
day per month which qualifies, and that is US Non-Farm Payrolls
[NFP] which comes at 8:30 am NY time the first Friday of each
month. Positions that are on are monitored as normal.
重大新闻日子会造成价格的剧烈波段避免开新仓。这是对的，我们跳过这些日子建立新的头寸。现在每月也就一天，每月纽约时间早上8：30分的非农数据，那一天不开新仓，但已有的头寸照常关注。
4.)When the tunnel is very
narrow [most of the time], do not just put stop on the other side
of tunnel. If you do you get whipsawed to death. Use the hourly
charts and the most recent hours of support and res. to make the
当隧道变的很窄（很多时候都这样），不要仅将止损设到隧道那一边，如果你那样做，会被反复折磨到死，用小时图的或最近几小时的止损或支撑来设止损。
If you are a
newbie to trading, you will find this to be the most troublesome
filter. If you are not familiar with trend lines, triangles, flags,
pennants, and support and res. levels, then go get the education
and come back. Simple but necessary advice.
如果你是交易的新手，你会发现这是一个很麻烦的过滤器。如果你不熟悉趋势线，三角形，旗形，细长三角旗形，阻力和支撑，你最好学习学习再回来。这是简单而必须的忠告。
I don't mean to
infer that just because you know this technical stuff it's going to
be a walk in the park. It's not. Let's make one thing perfectly
clear. EVERY model has its vulnerable spot that seem to increase
losses. For tunnel trading, this is one of the scenarios. Putting
in the right stop is an art, not a science.
我不是说你会那些技术术语,
这事就会很简单。不。说明一句,
每个交易模式都有它的缺陷，看起来增加损失。在隧道交易上也一样。正确止损是一种艺术,
不是一个科学。
5.)We look for clean moves [1
bar] through the tunnel. This means your into profits almost from
the get-go. You will not always get the
clean moves. The longer the
market stays in the tunnel chopping around, the higher the
probability our entry decision will be made on a break of support
or res. instead of the tunnel boundaries.
我们要的是一个干脆的突破(一跟棒)隧道边,
这意味着你几乎一入场便会盈利。但你不会经常得到干脆的突破。当市场留在隧道盘整区越长,
就越大机会你是以突破支持/阻力位进场,
而不是隧道边缘来进场。
6.)We do not trade minor
[contra-major] trend signals in a strong up or down market price
the GBP/USD is in a strong price uptrend, we will not initiate new
short positions on a break of the lower tunnel boundary. Why?
Because the probability of success in getting past 55 from the ema
is not very good. Past history tells us that, so I'm not looking to
be the hero here and say "This time it's different." When market
comes back through the tunnel on the upside, we will get back in on
the long side.
在强的上升或下降趋势中，我们不做小的
(反主趋势)的讯号。如果GBP/USD主趋势是往上,
我们不会因为价格跌破隧道下边而开新空仓。为什么? 因此这样情况下,
从ema跌破55点的机会率不会很高。这是经验告诉我们的。我不会很英雄地说"这次不同的。"当市价回到并突破隧道上边,
我们会继续做多。
If I have to tell
you when the market is in a strong price move, I don't think you
have been paying attention to the price movements of
如果我不得不在价格处于一个大的波动时告诉你，那我认为你并没有留心最近的价格走势。
In a range-bound
market, which we define as a market between 3 - 5 handles [or
lower] in a 5 week time-frame, we trade both sides.
在折返的市场，就是我在5周图上定义的3-5次折返的，我两个方向都作。
Now, that's all
we use. Can you use more? Can you invent your own? Can You change
some of the definitions? Yes, absolutely. Invent your own filters,
use an Elliot Wave filter, anything you think will help your
这就是我们用的隧道交易法。你能用的比这更多吗?你能创造出更多你的东西吗？你能改变其中的一些定义吗？是的，当然可以。发明你自己的过滤器，利用艾略特过滤器，任何你认为对你交易有帮助的所有的东西。
SUGGESTED MODEL
建议的模型
Do I really need
to mention money management?
我确实必须提及资金管理吗？
I didn't think
我不这样认为。
At a minimum you should be able
to do 3 units to implement tunnel trading. Use the 55, 89, and 144
levels to take 1/3 off at each level. If you can do 4 units, use
55, 89, 144, and 233. 5 units is the preferable level, and you use
55, 89, 144, 233, and let one unit ride until crosses over tunnel
boundary or it reaches 377.
最少你至少能下三个交易单位来执行隧道交易法，利用55，89，144来分次获取利润。如果你能做4个交易单位，用55，89，144和233来止赢。5个交易单位是比较完美的，你用55，89，144，233止赢，留下最后一个单位直到市场穿过隧道翻转或达到377来止赢。
Of course, you can make your
units any size you want. For smaller traders, a unit size
may be 10,000. If you do not have the money to trade 30,000 of
something, then I would advise you to save up and come back when
you do. If your account has $2,000 in it, you can easily implement
tunnel trading with 10k units.
当然，你能自己决定每个交易单位的大小。对于小的交易者，一个单位的大小或许是10，000。如果你没有钱来交易30,000，我建议您存足钱再来交易。如果你的账户有2000$了，你可以轻松的用10k的单位来进行隧道交易。
One of the greatest advantages
of this model is its flexibility in its design to allow you to
choose the level of risk/reward you desire in trading.
You can make this as
aggressive or as conservative as fits your style. I will give an
example of each. These are just examples, I'm not saying you have
to do this. I'm only giving you these two to stimulate your brain.
In the following day and weeks I am confident you will find an
appropriate level for yourself.
这个模型最大的有利在于弹性地选择你期望的风险回报比来交易，你可以选择适合你的进取型还是保守型。我会给每个模型范例。这仅仅是例子，我不是说你要这样做。我给这些仅仅是为了刺激你的大脑，在接下来的几天或几周，我确信你会找到适合你的。
Example 1 - Very
Aggressive
－非常进攻型
Tunnel is pivot
level for buy/sell. Above tunnel, buy breaks, sell at fib numbers.
At 233 an 377, fade the move for retracement. Below tunnel, sell
rallies, buy at the fib numbers. Use previous fib numbers in the
move as stop loss points. This is very aggressive, and will be
appropriate for very short-term traders who have a time-frame of
day-trading.
隧道是买卖的基准。隧道之上，买突破，在费那滋数列位置平仓。在233和377位置淡出等待回撤。在隧道之下，反弹卖出，在费那滋数列位置买回。用前面的费那滋位置止损。这是相当进攻型的，这适合短线交易者，做日内交易。
Example 2 - Very
Conservative
例2－非常保守型
Uses basic tunnel system with 12
ema. Only initiates on this signal. Looking for best possible
probability trade. Willing to give up more profitability in return
for less risk. Trades three units. Uses fib numbers 55, and 89 for
1/3 each. Leaves the other unit on until 233 or market price
crosses over tunnel boundary. Allows trader to catch
short-term [1-5 day] profit points, and also allows him/her to ride
the major trend if one develops.
和隧道系统一起使用ema(12)，仅在这个信号下建仓，寻找最好概率的交易机会。将在最小的风险下得到最好的收益。交易三个单位，用55，89止赢，留下最后一个单位直到233或者价格穿过隧道边缘止赢。允许交易者抓住1-5天的利润，而且一旦主要趋势生成就能抓到。
Like I said,
these are just two of an infinite number of risk/reward scenarios
you can develop using this model. This is not some rigid system,
where you have to do this or that. It is adaptable, with no right
or wrong answers. This is why many locals from soybeans to bonds to
gold and silver, oil, etc. use it. I've seen some people who have
transformed this into a model you wouldn't recognize without
knowing what tunnel trading offers.
象我说的，使用这个模型风险回报比仅仅只有两个不确定的数字。这不是一个刚性的系统，你要这样作或那样做。是适应性的，没有正确的或错误的答案。这是为什么许多使用者转到大豆、债券、金银、原油等市场去使用他。我看到一些人将他转换到你都不知道他在用隧道法交易什么。
When you get right down to it,
once you have adapted it into your own trading style and personal
risk model, tunnel trading will give you all you want.
Momentum to catch
the bigger moves over time, early profit points that allow you to
catch short-term movements, and the lowest risk you can possibly
have in a trade, because you are only risking 10 -25 pips on each
trade. If your odds of success on each trade were 50-50 [they
aren't this low], over time you would make a fortune. If you don't
believe me, then do the math.
一旦你真正了解他，一旦你将他转变成适合你个人交易风格的模型，隧道交易法能给你所有你要的。动量让你抓住长时间的大波动，也允许你抓住短期的波动，实现早期的利润。因为你每次仅仅承受10-25点的风险。如果你能每次交易的胜算为50-50（实际不是这么少），长期下来你会发财，如果你不相信我，就算一算。
Precisely because
of this flexibility tunnel trading is the best model I have ever
确切说因为隧道交易的灵活性，我认为是我看到的最好的交易模型。
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