南沙商业多少年才能旺？ 先有商业还是先有人？
■特邀嘉宾：广东省流通业商会执行会长黄文杰（图左二）广州高力国际物业服务有限公司调研及咨询部董事陈厚桥（图右一）
■主持：新快报记者 李琳
俗话说“茶三酒四游玩二”，一壶清茶，三只茶盏，三个人一落座，谈古论今，说楼市、道商业……谈笑风生中，总有智慧的火花时时擦出……
《新快报·商业地产》新开了“三人茶座”栏目，每期都特别邀请两位业界专家、学者或企业高管、项目操盘手，就社会关注的商业地产问题展开讨论，将以独到的视野，深入的剖析，精妙的言论与专业化的建议，共同为广州商业地产号诊把脉，为业界与政府建言，齐齐推动商业地产的繁荣发展。
9月6日，国务院正式批复了《广州南沙新区发展规划》，南沙正式成为了全国第六个国家级新区。南沙的新规划、新定位一下子就把市场搅热了，住宅楼市大旺，国庆前后推出来的商用公寓也卖断了货。
还没能撑起一个10万㎡商场
主持：南沙商业一下子热了起来，有不少发展商都说要去开大商场，南沙的这股商业热有没有虚火呢？
陈厚桥：现在说南沙的商业旺不旺太早了！商业繁华跟人、跟企业分不开，现在的南沙才有多少人？企业也不多，有的那些机关单位，职工都住市区里，下午四点多就下班了，一到晚上就几乎是空城了。想想有什么人会去消费呢！
黄文杰：我调查过，这地方现在常住人口满打满算的，也就10万人左右。一个8万-10万平方米的像天河城这样规模的购物中心，至少要有50万-60万常住人口才能撑得起！
主持：我们先不说现在，说说未来，至少要多少年后，我们才能在南沙看到像天河城一样热闹的大商场？
黄文杰：要三五年吧！其实南沙现在都建起了很多楼盘，但买的大多是投资客，大家都不去住，如果这些楼盘都住满了，其实也应该能撑得起一个大型购物中心了。最关键还是怎么才能把人气给吸引过来，而且还要留得住！
陈厚桥：我没有那么乐观。看珠江新城都发展了多少年了，现在商业也并不是很旺。南沙的商业真要做旺，至少要10年！不过话说回来，商业能不能做旺，最关键的还是产业问题！南沙距离广州中心城区那么远，一个在广州上班的人，不可能把家安在南沙天天来回跑吧，所以那边要真正有人气，还是要有大批企业进驻，让人有工作的地方，都说安居乐业，对远郊的新区来说，没有“业”就不可能有“居”。南沙需要引进足够多的企业才能把人气真正提起来，这一点政府的规划和引导非常重要。
还是先有人？
主持：有人说南沙留不住人是因为配套不足，大家想买东西没地方去，所以就没人愿意住下来？
陈厚桥：对一个新区来说，究竟是先有配套的商业还是得先有人？这就像先有鸡还是先有蛋一样，是扯不清的。不过这两样始终是相互相成的，现在南沙也有些小商业，像金洲商业街这类的，虽然规模不大，档次也不高，但是这两年发展得还是挺快的。商业要一步步来，人旺一些，生意好做一些，就会吸引更多的人过去做生意。而商店多了，买东西方便了，安心住在那里的人也就会更多，又反过来再带动商业的发展。
黄文杰：先有商业还是先有人？关键还是人！主持：南沙的商业要守很长的时间，那对政府、对想进入这个市场的发展商来说，现在最应该注意的是什么？
陈厚桥：从政府层面来说，要合理引导、严格审批，千万不能一下子批建一大堆大型商业项目。关键是要把好土地出让、规划审批的关卡，从源头上避免恶性竞争。而对发展商来说，更不能连市场调研都没有做透，对消费群没研究透，就盲目进来搞商业！
黄文杰：在未来五年内，南沙这边除了一些社区商业、街铺外，最多只能撑起两个8万-10万平方米规模的大型购物中心，超过两个了，市场就危险了，大家都会没有生意做！如果10年后，当地的常住人口能超过100万了，才有可能考虑支撑起更多的购物中心。
陈厚桥：发展商真要在南沙发展商业，还是先立足社区，先从社区商业做起，一方面能满足社区居民日常生活的需要，另一方面也能降低自己的风险。毕竟入住的居民多了，社区商业的消费基础还是比较稳定的。
“免税区”
有总比没有好
主持：南沙不是还有“免税区”、“免税店”的规划吗？这个“免税”的大招牌，难道不能给商业带来更多机会吗？
陈厚桥：“免税区”、“免税店”对南沙来说，只能是锦上添花。海南的离岛免税政策出来后，有很多国外的大型购物中心找过我们想进去开店，但后来都无疾而终，海南旅客客流的季节性非常强，大规模的旅游购物还是很难做得起来。从旅游资源看，南沙跟海南是没法比的，所以要想指望靠离港免税来吸引旅游消费，其实还是有个基础的问题，那就是谁会过来旅游购物呢？
黄文杰：我倒觉得不管有没有旅游资源，“免税区”能做起来，对南沙的商业始终还是个大利好。毕竟除了本地消费，“免税店”能吸引更多外来客，只要运作、宣传得好，还是有机会的，可以把东莞、中山、深圳，甚至外省的客源吸引过来，毕竟来南沙比去香港或者海南要方便多了。
(本文来源：金羊网-新快报
作者：李琳)
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幸福是成功之母？
　　现代社会最大的文化迷思我们不能改变。研究证明你可以变得更加乐观，但是如果你优先考虑眼前的幸福，你会收获额外的好处。
　　Some people think if you are happy, you are blind to reality. But when we research it, happiness actually raises every single business and educational outcome for the brain. How did we miss this? Why do we have these societal misconceptions about happiness? Because we assumed you were average。
　　When we study people, scientists are often interested in what the average is. If we study what is merely average, we will remain merely average。
　　Many people think happiness is genetic. That's only half the story, because the average person does not fight their genes. When we stop studying the average and begin researching positive outliers -- people who are above average for a positive dimension like optimism or intelligence -- a wildly different picture emerges. Our daily decisions and habits have a huge impact upon both our levels of happiness and success。
　　Scientifically, happiness is a choice. It is a choice about where your single processor brain will devote its finite resources as you process the world. If you scan for the negative first, your brain literally has no resources left over to see the things you are grateful for or the meaning embedded in your work. But if you scan the world for the positive, you start to reap an amazing advantage。
　　Now that there is research validity to these claims, the working world is starting to take notice. In January, I wrote the cover story for the Harvard Business Review magazine on "Happiness Leads to Profits." Based on my article called "Positive Intelligence" and my research in The Happiness Advantage, I outlined our researched conclusion: the single greatest advantage in the modern economy is a happy and engaged workforce。
　　A decade of research in the business world proves that happiness raises nearly every business and educational outcome: raising sales by 37%， productivity by 31%， and accuracy on tasks by 19%， as well as a myriad of health and quality-of-life improvements。
　　Given the unprecedented level of unhappiness at companies and the direct link between happiness and business outcomes, the question is NOT whether happiness should matter to companies. Given this research, it clearly should. The first question is: What can I do in my own life to reap the advantage of happiness?
　　Training your brain to be positive at work is just like training your muscles at the gym. Sounds simple, right? Well, think about how easy it is to make yourself go to the gym. The key with any new resolution is to make it a habit. New research on neuroplasticity -- the ability of the brain to change even as an adult -- reveals that moderate actions can rewire the brain as you create "life habits."
　　In The Happiness Advantage, I challenge readers to do one brief positive exercise every day for 21 days. Only through behavioral change can information become transformation。
　　• Write down three new things you are g
　　• Write for two minutes a day describing one positive experience you had over the past 24
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　　• Write one quick email first thing in the morning thanking or praising someone in your social support network (family member, friend, old teacher)。
　　But does it work? In the midst of the worst tax season in history I did a three-hour intervention at auditing and tax accounting firm KPMG, describing how to reap the happiness advantage by creating one of these positive habits. Four months later, there was a 24% improvement in job and life satisfaction. Not only is change possible, this is one of the first long-term ROI (return on investment) studies proving that happiness leads to long-term quantifiable positive change。
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　　The greatest cultural myth in modern society is that we cannot change. My research proves that you can not only become more positive, but if you prioritize happiness in the present, you can reap an extraordinary advantage。
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