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上市公司财务预警系统的探讨
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财务预警,上市公司,财务预警系统,财务危机,
财务危机是一个企业无力偿还到期债务的困难和危机,它不仅危及到企业自身的存活与发展,而且还影响到投资人、债权人和国家的利益。随着我国市场经济体制革新的深化和资本市场的快速发展,经济领域中的复杂性、不确定性日益凸显,企业发生财务危机乃至破产倒闭的情形越来越多。因此,建立财务预警系统,有效地防范财务危机的出现,已是刻不容缓的财务管理课题之一。本文就财务困境的成因,财务预警系统的基本理论,国内外对财务预警系统的研究近况,运用Z计分模型预测上市公司的财务危机及财务预警系统的完善几个方面展开论述。
第一章由财务困境的定义入手引出我国学者对财务困境的界定,接着介绍财务困境公司的成因;第二章是财务预警系统的基本理论,包括了其定义、内涵及内容,检测对象和职能等;第三章对国内外对财务预警系统的研究进行回顾,主要对国外的几个具有代表性的模型及我国在这方面的理论研究进行文献综述,如比弗的单变量模型和奥特曼的Z计分模型,最后浅析浅析了我国现阶段研究中存在的不足;第四章是运用Z计分模型结合上市公司的财务数据预测财务危机的浅析浅析,通过选取样本和收集数据得出Z值计算表,然后对该表浅析浅析得出Z计分模型在我国上市公司财务危机的预测中还是有一定的适用性的;第五章就如何完善上市公司财务预警系统展开讨论,首先是要改善财务预警模型,科学设置财务预警指标体系;其次综合运用单变量和多变量模型,不断改善预警系统;最后指出了考虑非财务指标和定性因素也是完善上市公司财务预警系统的主要内容;第六章得出我国对财务预警的研究主要以定量浅析浅析为主,不应忽视主观得出的结论和建立模型不仅要考虑其准确性还要考虑其适用性等几个方面的结论。
【Abstract】 Financial crisis is that an enterprise can’t repay the mature debt.It is the threat not only to the existence of the enterprise,but also to the investors,creditors and the interest of the country. With the deepening of China’s market economy system reform and the rapid development on the domestic capital market, the complexity and the incertitude of the economy field is in creasingly obvious.It is a common fact that more and more enterprises are down to bankruptcy and liquidation because of financial crisis. So how to establish an efective financial early-warning system for enterprise to keep away the financial crisis is the urgent assignment of our financial management. This paper sets forth the analysis and discussion on using the Z-score model to predict financial crisis of the listed company and on perfecting the financial pre-warning system on the basis of the causes of the crisis, the basic theory of the system and the status quo on this field home and abroad.Chapter 1 has the specifications of financial crisis given by national scholars based on the definition of financial crisis, and then introduces its causes. Chapter 2 is about the basic theories of the financial pre-warning system, including its definition, connotation and contents, targets and functions. Chapter 3 reviews all the research work carried out on the financial pre-warning system both home and abroad, focusing on several international models with high representativeness such as Beaver’s single-variable model and Altaian’s Z-score model, as well as on domestic theoretic research and then analysis on the problems present during the research. Chapter 4 makes the conclusion after analyzing the Z-value table that the Z-score model has the applicability in predicting the crisis of domestic listed company, applying the Z-score model by collecting samples and data to make the Z -value table. Chapter 5 proceeds with the discussion on how to consummate the listed company financial pre-warning system. The suggestions are as follows: firstly, improving the the pre-secondly, using the integrated models with both single variable ones and muti-and last but not the least, considering both financial and non-financial factors is also the key.Chapter 6 indicates that domestic researches carried out on the pre-warning system are mainly qualitive.So we are supposed to consider not noly the accuracy but also the applicability of the conclusions speculated subjectively as well as the modeling.
【关键词】 财务预警；
上市公司；
财务预警系统；
财务危机；
【Key words】 financial pre-warning；
Iisted company；
financial pre-warning system；
financial crisis；
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